Republican Andrew Rice crushed Democrat Cheryl Smith by 25 points Tuesday night in a Virginia special election that has conservatives buzzing about what comes next in a state Democrats thought they owned.
The race filled the Virginia House District 98 seat left vacant after Republican Delegate Barry Knight died of cancer last month. Rice didn't just win. He outperformed President Donald Trump's 2024 total in the district by 10 points and ran ahead of Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican candidate for governor, in her November showing.
Conservative commentator Greg Price put the numbers plainly on X:
Republican Andrew Rice is currently ahead +29 in a district that was Sears +7 in November.
A 22-point swing toward the GOP in a matter of months. In Virginia.
The obvious question is why. This was already a red district, so Rice was expected to win. He was not expected to win like this. The margin suggests something beyond local dynamics, something statewide simmering beneath the surface.
Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger has faced intense criticism from conservatives since taking office in January. The core charge is straightforward: she campaigned as a moderate and governed as something else entirely. Since January, Democrats in Richmond have moved to end state cooperation with ICE, reduce mandatory minimum sentencing, raise taxes, and prioritize DEI in government contracts.
That's not a moderate agenda by any definition of the word. And voters appear to have noticed.
Republican Virginia Delegate Tim Griffin celebrated on X:
Radical Dems are overreaching in Virginia & voters have noticed. Big REPUBLICAN WIN in Virginia tonight, congrats Delegate-Elect Rice!
Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans struck a similar tone:
The momentum is REAL, and Virginians are paying attention and are fed up with the progressive liberal agenda trying to take over our Commonwealth.
Kerry Dougherty, co-host of a Virginia Beach radio show and longtime journalist, was more direct. She called the result "backlash against our insane governor and the left-wing nuts in the General Assembly."
According to Fox News, there's another factor that may have supercharged Republican turnout: an April referendum that would trigger a mid-cycle redrawing of Virginia's congressional map to heavily favor Democrats.
Virginia elections analyst Sam Shirazi called it the "elephant in the room" on his "Federal Fallout" podcast:
I think one explanation of what happened is the Republicans are fired up, and they're upset about the redistricting referendum.
Shirazi also noted that Republican anger may extend beyond the map fight, pointing to broader frustration with what Democrats have done since January.
Potentially, they could also be generally upset at what's been going on in Richmond since the Democrats took over in January. So, perhaps they're upset with some of the bills that have been passed.
The redistricting referendum deserves particular attention. Mid-cycle map redraws are the kind of procedural power grab that voters instinctively distrust, and for good reason. When the party in power tries to redraw the lines between elections, it signals that they don't trust voters to keep them in office under fair conditions. Republican Delegate Karen Hamilton connected the dots on X, arguing that strong fundraising could help Republicans "win this redistricting fight in Virginia and secure the midterms."
Conservative commentator and writer Ben Braddock went further:
Republicans in Virginia are overperforming so strongly that the gerrymander attempt is suddenly looking much riskier for Dems.
He has a point. If Republican voters are this energized in a low-turnout special election for a state delegate seat, the April referendum could produce results Democrats haven't planned for.
The broader pattern here extends well beyond Virginia, but the state offers a particularly clean case study. Spanberger ran for governor the way Democrats always run in purple and reddish states: as a sensible centrist who just wants to get things done. Then January arrived, and the agenda materialized.
Ending cooperation with ICE. Reducing mandatory minimums. DEI mandates in government contracting. Tax increases. This is not centrism. This is the progressive wish list with a moderate accent.
Voters are not stupid. They remember what candidates said on the trail. They can compare promises to performance. And when the gap between the two grows wide enough, they show up at the polls with a message. Tuesday night's 25-point margin was that message.
One special election does not make a trend. But a 22-point swing in a matter of months, in a state that just elected a Democratic governor, in a race with no national attention and no massive spending, is not nothing. It is the sound of a backlash building.
April will tell us whether Democrats heard it.