Secretary of State Marco Rubio captured 57 percent of the vote in a 2028 Republican presidential straw poll at the Western Conservative Summit in Colorado, finishing 36 points ahead of Vice President JD Vance.
The poll, conducted over the weekend among more than 500 attendees at the summit hosted by the Centennial Institute, put Rubio at the top of a 27-candidate field that included both Republican and Democratic names. Vance finished second with 21 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis rounded out the top five, though The Hill reported no specific vote percentages for those three.
Neither Rubio nor Vance has announced a 2028 presidential campaign. But the lopsided result, at a gathering of grassroots conservative activists, offers an early snapshot of where the Republican base's enthusiasm sits more than two years before the next presidential election.
Beyond the head-to-head vote, the approval numbers told a similar story. Rubio earned 85 percent approval from summit attendees. Vance drew 71 percent. DeSantis came in at 55 percent. Those three were the only Republicans in the entire field to crack majority approval.
Greg Schaller, director of the Centennial Institute, framed the result as a verdict on Rubio's record. He called Rubio:
"A leader who has spent his career defending the principles of faith, family, and freedom without wavering."
Schaller added:
"Secretary Rubio has earned this trust the hard way, and this Summit's grassroots are telling him, loud and clear, that they're behind him."
A 36-point margin in a straw poll does not predict a primary outcome. Straw polls sample the activists who show up, not the broader electorate. But they do measure intensity, and on that score, Rubio's dominance was hard to miss.
Vance has kept his 2028 options open without committing. In a recent CBS Sunday Morning interview, the vice president offered a characteristically careful answer about his timeline.
"The way I make decisions is, I try not to make them until I absolutely must."
In June, Vance said he would discuss a potential presidential run with his wife, Usha Vance, after the November midterm elections. The couple recently welcomed their fourth child, born last month, a personal milestone that has added another variable to the family's decision-making.
Vance also revealed that President Trump brings up the 2028 race "a lot" in their conversations, describing the president as a "political animal" on the subject. Trump, for his part, has not publicly endorsed any candidate for 2028.
But the president did float a tantalizing idea in June. Speaking on the New York Post's "Pod Force One" podcast, Trump mused about a combined Vance-Rubio ticket:
"I don't know how you beat them if they're together."
The dynamic between Rubio and Vance has so far avoided the kind of public friction that typically accompanies early presidential jockeying. Rubio told Vanity Fair last year that he would defer to Vance if the vice president seeks the GOP nomination, a statement that positions Rubio as willing to step aside but not necessarily eager to.
That posture could shift quickly. A 57-percent showing at a major conservative gathering gives Rubio's allies fresh ammunition to argue that the grassroots want him in the race regardless of Vance's plans. Vance's 21 percent, while a clear second-place finish, suggests that even among committed conservative activists, the vice president's support is not yet locked in.
Vance has also navigated a complicated stretch inside the administration. Reports have surfaced about shifting dynamics within the West Wing that could affect how Republican voters evaluate his candidacy when the time comes.
The approval data may matter as much as the vote itself. In a field of 27 candidates, just three Republicans, Rubio, Vance, and DeSantis, earned majority favorability from the summit's attendees. That narrow tier suggests the 2028 primary could consolidate around a small group rather than sprawling into the kind of crowded free-for-all that marked the 2016 cycle.
DeSantis, who ran against Trump in the 2024 primary, posted a 55-percent approval rating, respectable but well behind both Rubio and Vance. Pence and Massie cracked the top five in the vote but did not earn majority approval.
The personal side of the 2028 conversation has also drawn attention. The death of conservative activist Charlie Kirk reportedly affected the Vance family's thinking about their growing household, adding an emotional dimension to decisions that will inevitably intersect with political ambition.
Meanwhile, lighter moments around the Vance family have kept the vice president in the public eye. Reports emerged that Usha Vance pushed back on JD's suggestion to name their newborn son after President Trump, a detail that humanizes the couple even as the political machinery around them accelerates.
Vance's stated timeline, wait until after the November midterms to have the conversation with his wife, means the 2028 race will likely stay in its informal phase for at least several more months. Rubio has not publicly contradicted his earlier deference to Vance, but a 36-point lead at a grassroots summit is not the kind of signal a politician ignores.
The Western Conservative Summit straw poll is one data point, not a forecast. Its respondents are self-selected activists, not a representative sample of Republican primary voters nationwide. But early indicators matter because they shape donor confidence, media coverage, and the willingness of operatives to commit to a campaign.
On that front, Rubio's weekend in Colorado delivered a clear message: the conservative grassroots are not waiting for permission to pick a favorite. Whether Vance, Rubio, or both ultimately run, the base is already making its preferences known, and right now, those preferences tilt heavily toward the secretary of state.
Straw polls come and go. But when 57 percent of a room full of conservative activists writes your name on the ballot unprompted, the polite thing to do is pay attention.