Andy Baker, one of the architects of the Trump administration's Iran strategy, is stepping down as deputy national security adviser just as Tehran escalates drone attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, leaving a gap at the top of the national security team with midterm elections less than three months away.
Baker plans to leave the White House in the coming weeks, the Daily Mail reported, citing an Axios report that the longtime JD Vance ally told those close to him he is departing to spend more time with his family. He said he stayed on longer than originally planned to ensure an orderly transition.
His exit comes at a precarious moment. On Thursday night, Iran launched explosive suicide drone attacks on two oil tankers operated by Abu Dhabi's state-owned oil company in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil. Both tankers sustained minor damage, and no casualties were reported, but the strike sent Brent crude to $87 per barrel by Friday. The national average gas price now sits above $4 per gallon.
Baker played a central role in crafting and executing Trump's foreign policy over the past 18 months. He was a key figure in the now-stalled peace talks with Iran and personally drafted the Memorandum of Understanding signed in June, an agreement Tehran has since walked away from. He also advised the president on maintaining the naval blockade aimed at forcing Iran back to the negotiating table.
The administration says it can sustain that blockade indefinitely. Iran, for its part, claims it controls and manages the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday's drone strikes suggest Tehran is testing that claim with force rather than diplomacy.
Before the conflict, more than 100 vessels per day moved through the waterway. On Thursday, only nine commodity vessels made the passage, below even the August daily average of 12. That collapse in shipping traffic tells the story of a chokepoint under siege, with consequences rippling through global energy markets and American wallets alike.
Just last month, Brent crude had fallen to $70 per barrel on hopes of a peace deal. The $17-per-barrel swing since then reflects how quickly the situation has deteriorated, and how much was riding on the diplomatic framework Baker helped build.
Vice President Vance personally praised his former aide after the resignation was announced. Baker began his career at the State Department before joining Vance's Senate office as his national security adviser, and the two have been close allies throughout the administration.
Vance has been a central figure in the administration's policy apparatus, and Baker's departure removes one of his most trusted voices from the West Wing.
In a statement, Vance called Baker an invaluable member of the team:
"Andy is an exceptionally gifted, deeply thoughtful advisor who has served the President and me with distinction. He has been an indispensable member of our administration's national security team."
Baker struck a grateful tone in his own remarks to Axios:
"This has been an amazing journey. I'm proud of everything we've achieved and, of course, am incredibly grateful to the President, Vice President, and Secretary Rubio."
Baker is not the only senior figure heading for the exits. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced her own resignation days before Baker's departure was reported. The back-to-back losses come as Trump prepares for midterm elections, a period when the party's political infrastructure needs steady hands, not transition chaos.
The United Arab Emirates condemned Thursday's drone attack as an act of piracy and a threat to global energy security. The strikes targeted tankers belonging to Abu Dhabi's state-owned oil company, a direct provocation against a key US ally in the region.
The timing raises an unavoidable question: does Baker's departure signal internal disagreement over Iran strategy, or is it genuinely a family decision? The administration's public posture suggests the latter, and Vance's warm praise points to an amicable split. But the fact remains that the man who drafted the MOU and advised on the blockade is walking out the door while Tehran ramps up aggression.
Staff turnover in any White House is normal, and senior officials leaving after 18 months is hardly unusual. The pattern of departures from Trump's orbit has drawn scrutiny before, but Baker's exit stands apart because of the live crisis attached to his portfolio.
The broader history of Trump-era national security departures offers some context. Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, who left the White House during Trump's first term, went on to publicly criticize Republican foreign policy positions. McMaster appeared on CBS's Face the Nation in November 2024, telling the network that "Republicans have to disabuse themselves of this strange affection for Vladimir Putin." Whether Baker follows a similar path or stays aligned with the administration remains to be seen.
For now, the administration faces a concrete problem: who replaces the person who built the Iran strategy at a moment when that strategy is under direct military pressure? The MOU Baker drafted is defunct. The blockade he advised on continues, but the adversary it targets just struck two allied oil tankers. And the diplomat who understood the architecture of both efforts is packing his desk.
With gas above $4 per gallon and crude surging, the Iran conflict is no longer an abstract foreign policy debate for most Americans. It is a kitchen-table issue, one that voters will carry into the midterm elections. The administration's ability to project strength and stability in the Persian Gulf has a direct line to pump prices in every congressional district.
The shifting dynamics within Trump's inner circle add another layer. Personnel decisions at this level shape policy, and policy shapes outcomes that voters feel. Baker's departure does not change the administration's stated resolve to maintain the blockade, but it does remove institutional knowledge at exactly the wrong time.
Iran walked away from the agreement Baker helped negotiate. It launched drones at allied tankers. And now the official who understood Tehran's negotiating posture better than almost anyone in the West Wing is leaving. Those are not unrelated facts.
The administration will need to fill Baker's seat quickly and with someone who can pick up a complex portfolio mid-crisis. Anything less hands Tehran exactly the kind of disarray it is counting on.