President Trump's approval rating has fallen to the lowest point of his political career, a slide driven by the Iran war, rising gas prices, and an economy that voters say is heading the wrong direction, all with midterms six weeks away.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 17, 20 put Trump's approval at 32 percent among 1,277 respondents, with 66 percent disapproving. Reuters described the figure as the lowest of Trump's entire political life, a steep fall from the 47 percent approval he carried at the start of his second term. That gap represents a 15-point drop in approval and a 25-point surge in disapproval since he took office again.
The poll carries a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Even accounting for that, the number sits well below the broader Decision Desk HQ polling average, which pegged Trump's approval at 38.8 percent and his disapproval at 59.7 percent as of Monday evening.
And it is not just one survey flashing red. A separate Economist/YouGov poll recorded Trump at 34 percent approval, his worst showing in that survey across both terms, with 59 percent disapproving, a net-negative split of 26 points. Rising energy prices tied to the Iran war were cited as a primary driver.
The Washington Examiner reported Trump's approval at 35 percent against 60 percent disapproval, 25 points underwater and down more than a point from the prior week alone. The Economist's polling tracker now ranks Trump as the most unpopular president at this stage of a presidency since the tracker began in 2009.
That is a striking benchmark. It means Trump's current standing is worse, by this measure, than any point in either Obama term, either Biden year, or Trump's own first term at the same distance from a midterm.
Fox News reported the approval figure at 33 percent, with 64 percent disapproving, numbers that tied Trump's all-time lowest mark. The network linked the decline directly to the Iran conflict, gas prices, and inflation.
The economic picture behind the numbers is concrete. Gas prices have climbed from just under $3 per gallon to just over $4 since the Iran war started in February, according to Fox News. Year-over-year inflation rose from 2.4 percent in February to 3.4 percent, per Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited in the same report.
Those are the kinds of numbers that hit kitchen tables directly. A dollar more per gallon and a full percentage point of additional inflation do not require a pollster to explain, they show up at the pump and the grocery store every week.
Trump addressed the gas price increase at a recent New York rally, telling supporters:
"Remember that when you have to pay a little bit more, $4, it's OK."
White House spokesperson Olivia Wales framed the situation differently, saying Trump "is cleaning up Joe Biden's mess, and there is more work to do, but the United States of America has never been stronger." The "more work to do" language suggests the administration recognizes the political damage without conceding the policy argument.
Trump was reportedly in the Situation Room working on what was described as a "final determination" on an Iran war deal as the polling numbers continued to slide. Whether a resolution to the conflict would reverse the approval trend is an open question, but the administration appears to understand the urgency.
The approval numbers do not exist in a vacuum. A separate New York Times/Siena University poll found Republicans trailing Democrats on immigration, healthcare, and the economy, three issues that have historically been GOP strengths, and three issues where the party would need to hold ground to protect its congressional majorities in November.
Losing the advantage on immigration is particularly notable. The border was one of Trump's strongest cards in 2024. If voters now trust Democrats more on the issue, the political ground has shifted in ways that go beyond one poll or one bad news cycle.
The economy presents a similar problem. Trump has staked much of his second-term pitch on economic performance, including a pledge of $5,000 cash dividends to every American adult if the GOP holds Congress. But with inflation climbing and energy costs up sharply, the promise of future prosperity is competing with present-tense pain.
Midterms are now roughly six weeks away. The president's party almost always loses seats in a midterm cycle, and that pattern tends to accelerate when a president's approval sits below 40 percent. At 32 to 35 percent across multiple polls, the current numbers suggest a political environment that could hand Democrats significant gains.
Trump has been rallying Republicans in key states, trying to frame the midterms as a choice between his agenda and what he calls Democratic radicalism. But rallies energize the base; they do not fix gas prices or end a war overseas.
The administration has also faced setbacks on the procedural front. The Supreme Court recently blocked Trump's mail-in voting restrictions, leaving states to run the midterms under existing rules, a decision that removed one lever the White House had hoped to pull before November.
Polling is not prophecy. A single survey with 1,277 respondents and a 3-point margin of error can land outside the true number. But when Reuters/Ipsos, Economist/YouGov, Fox News, and the broader Decision Desk HQ average all converge in the low-to-mid 30s, the signal is harder to dismiss as noise.
The open questions are real. Can a resolution to the Iran conflict reverse the slide? Will gas prices stabilize or keep climbing? Does the White House have enough time to change the trajectory before November? None of those questions have clear answers today.
What is clear is that the current numbers represent a political environment that no White House, Republican or Democrat, would choose to face heading into a midterm. The Iran war, inflation, and rising energy costs have created a combination of pressures that rallies and messaging alone cannot offset. Voters are not grading on a curve. They are grading on a gas receipt.