Political analyst Larry Sabato believes that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s recent endorsement of former President Donald Trump will likely have a minimal effect on the forthcoming presidential election.
After suspending his presidential campaign last week, Kennedy's influence in politics has diminished. Reports from The Hill indicate that Kennedy's initial strong polling numbers declined sharply following Vice President Kamala Harris's entry into the race. His support, which was once in the range of the upper teens to low 20s, has now fallen to just 2 to 6 percent in crucial states.
Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, expressed doubt that Kennedy's endorsement would translate into a notable boost for Trump.
Despite the former president's campaign releasing a memo claiming Kennedy’s supporters would likely shift to Trump in a head-to-head matchup with Harris, Sabato suggested that this outcome is far from certain.
"For those who believe that Kennedy's endorsement will simply move his support base to Trump, they might be underestimating the complexities of voter behavior," Sabato remarked. He emphasized that Kennedy's supporters could just as easily align with other candidates, including Harris.
Sabato also pointed out that Kennedy's political trajectory had been steadily declining, even before his campaign suspension. "He has been dropping like a rock ever since Kamala Harris got in," Sabato said, noting that Kennedy's initial surge in the polls had dissipated almost entirely by the time of his endorsement.
As Kennedy's campaign struggled, Harris's candidacy gained momentum, narrowing the gap between her and Trump in national and swing state polls. Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump once considered a potential game-changer, now appears to be a less significant factor in the overall election dynamics.
Sabato further commented on the diminishing relevance of the Kennedy name in contemporary politics. While the Kennedy family has long been a staple of American political life, Sabato suggested that RFK Jr.'s failure to capitalize on this legacy contributed to his campaign's struggles. "He couldn’t cash in on the Kennedy name," Sabato observed.
This decline in influence is reflected in the polls, where Kennedy's numbers have dropped to the low single digits. A recent poll showed him garnering just 2 percent of the vote, a far cry from his earlier standing.
The Trump campaign's optimism about absorbing Kennedy's supporters is not widely shared among political experts. Despite a memo from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio claiming that Trump would benefit from Kennedy's endorsement, the latest polls paint a different picture.
In a hypothetical three-way race featuring Trump, Harris, and Kennedy, the latter’s support remains minimal, with Harris maintaining a lead of 5.6 percentage points over Trump. Kennedy's endorsement, it seems, has done little to alter the broader electoral landscape.
Sabato reiterated his skepticism about the impact of the endorsement, noting that "people who think that, because he’s endorsing Trump, he can just move that 2 percent into Trump’s column don’t know much about politics." He underscored the reality that voter behavior is not always predictable, especially when dealing with a figure like Kennedy, whose support has been on the decline.
Political analyst Larry Sabato doubts that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement of former President Donald Trump will significantly influence the upcoming presidential election. Sabato, who is the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, noted that despite claims from Trump's campaign, Kennedy's dwindling support, which has plummeted to 2-6% in crucial states, is unlikely to substantially benefit Trump. He highlighted that voter behavior is complex, and Kennedy’s declining influence, exacerbated by his inability to leverage his family's political legacy, makes the endorsement less impactful.
