A self-described democratic socialist is running away with Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, and a separate poll shows he would lose the general election to the Republican by double digits, threatening to hand the GOP a seat it badly wants.
Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive backed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, leads Rep. Haley Stevens 54 percent to 39 percent among Democratic primary voters, according to an Emerson College Polling survey conducted with WLNS and WOODTV and released Thursday. When undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are factored in, El-Sayed's advantage widens to 57, 41. The primary is Tuesday, five days away, and Stevens has shown no sign of closing the gap.
The problem for Democrats is what comes next. A separate poll found that former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Trump-endorsed Republican frontrunner, defeats El-Sayed by ten points in a general-election matchup. Stevens, by contrast, leads Rogers by a single point. Democrats are on the verge of nominating the candidate least likely to hold the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters, in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024.
The Emerson poll reveals a sharp generational fault line inside the Democratic electorate. Voters under 50 favor El-Sayed by a staggering 42 points, 67 percent to 25 percent. Among voters in their 50s, his lead narrows to 12 points. Only voters over 60 prefer Stevens, backing her 53, 39.
That age split tells a story about where the Democratic base has moved. Younger primary voters are choosing the candidate who supports abolishing ICE and has drawn scrutiny for refusing to say Israel has a right to exist, according to a Mitchell Research poll reported by Newsmax that showed a similar El-Sayed lead of 52, 38. Older voters, the ones who remember a Democratic Party that talked about border security and stood with Israel, are siding with Stevens. But there aren't enough of them.
The Democratic Socialists of America have poured organizers, volunteers, and resources into Michigan to boost El-Sayed's campaign, the Washington Free Beacon reported. El-Sayed became the frontrunner after moderate competitor Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign, consolidating the progressive lane. Left-wing consultant Vincent Vertuccio told the outlet that "Michigan is absolutely the next focus of this national movement."
The DSA's investment signals that the party's activist wing sees Michigan not as a one-off but as a proving ground. That confidence may be warranted in a primary. In a general election in a Trump-won swing state, it is a different calculation entirely.
Mike Rogers and Michigan GOP leaders have made no secret of which Democrat they want to face. Rogers told Just The News that his campaign would be in "good shape" against either opponent, but the math clearly favors him against El-Sayed. Former Oakland County GOP Chairman Rocky Raczkowski was more direct, saying of El-Sayed's potential nomination: "By winning the Senate nomination on Tuesday, he can do a great thing for America, and a great thing for Mike Rogers."
Stevens herself has tried to warn Democratic voters about the danger. She dismissed El-Sayed as a "celebrity candidate" and argued that Republicans are actively propping up his campaign. In a pointed attack reported by Fox News, Stevens said:
"Republicans are propping up his campaign, and Mike Rogers, just the other day said in a secret phone call that he made it easier for him to win, that he's the one he wants to run against."
That argument hasn't moved the needle. Outside groups have spent over $52 million on the Michigan Senate race through mid-July, much of it benefiting Stevens, and she is still losing by double digits in primary polling. Money has not solved what is fundamentally a problem of where the Democratic base wants to go.
El-Sayed's policy positions read like a Republican opposition researcher's wish list. He supports abolishing ICE. He backs what his critics describe as socialized medicine and open borders. The Washington Free Beacon reported that he has made controversial statements on terrorism, declined to condemn the death of Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, and accepted an endorsement from a group whose leader called for Israeli Jews to be "sent back to Poland." A July 24 Washington Monthly article examined what it called El-Sayed's "slippery argument" about whether Israel has a right to exist.
In a state Trump won in 2024, those positions create openings that a candidate like Rogers, a former congressman with a law-enforcement background and a presidential endorsement, would exploit relentlessly. The ten-point general-election gap the polling already shows could widen once a full campaign focuses voter attention on El-Sayed's record.
Democrats are watching Senate hopes fade in multiple battleground states, and Michigan is fast becoming the most vivid example. The party's Senate map was already difficult heading into the midterms, with forecasters noting the upper chamber remains an uphill climb for Democrats even in a favorable House environment.
Rogers, for his part, has projected confidence about the broader political landscape. He told Just The News that "the Trump plan has actually started working," pointing to tariffs he says have helped Michigan's auto industry. Whether or not voters agree with that assessment, Rogers is running a general-election campaign while Democrats are still fighting over which version of their party shows up in November.
The Michigan primary is a case study in a tension Democrats have failed to resolve since 2016: their activist base demands ideological purity, but their competitive map demands pragmatism. Stevens represents the establishment lane, backed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and retiring Sen. Peters, and she is losing badly to a candidate the party's own polling suggests cannot win the general.
The division runs deep enough that voters on social media have vowed never to support the opposing candidate if their preferred choice loses, Just The News reported. That kind of factional bitterness doesn't heal in three months before a November election.
James Carville warned months ago that left-wing elements were sabotaging the party ahead of the midterms. Michigan is shaping up as proof. Senate Democratic leadership has struggled to address the ideological drift; Chuck Schumer himself sidestepped questions about whether Democratic Socialists belong in his caucus.
RealClearPolling's older surveys showed a closer race between El-Sayed and Rogers in a general-election matchup, but the most recent data points all in the same direction: El-Sayed is the weaker nominee, and he is the one Democratic voters are choosing. If that holds through Tuesday, Republicans will have a clear shot at flipping a Senate seat that has been in Democratic hands, and, as the S1 author argues, at locking down Senate control.
When a party's base picks the candidate its opponents are openly rooting for, the base isn't leading, it's being led. Michigan Democrats are about to find out what that costs.