A new AP-NORC survey shows 64% of Americans believe the Iran conflict is not worth fighting, and support is slipping even among Republicans, where approval of President Trump's Iran policy dropped ten points in a single month.
The poll, conducted July 23, 27 among 1,165 U.S. adults, landed during the final stretch of 13 consecutive nights of American strikes on Iran. By the time the last interviews wrapped on July 27, fighting had paused. It resumed the next day, after the survey closed, meaning the numbers Americans gave pollsters may already understate the war-weariness building across the country.
Only 23% of all adults said the United States should continue military action against Iran. Among Democrats, that figure was 4%. Among independents, it was not much better. Even among Republicans, the president's base, fewer than half, 48%, favored continuing operations.
The overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. For the Republican subsample it is 6.0 points, and for Democrats 5.4 points.
The sharpest movement in the AP-NORC data came inside the GOP. In June, 71% of Republicans approved of Trump's handling of Iran. By late July that number had fallen to 61%. A ten-point slide among your own voters in thirty days is not a rounding error, it is a trend demanding attention.
Democrat approval of Trump's Iran policy fell from 8% to 4% over the same period. Independent support dropped from 22% to 17%. Across every partisan group, the direction was the same: down.
Trump's overall job approval also declined, falling from 37% in June to 33% in July. That four-point drop tracks closely with the erosion on Iran, suggesting the war is weighing on broader perceptions of the presidency.
The political pressure is already visible on Capitol Hill. Four Republican senators crossed party lines earlier to side with Democrats on an Iran war powers resolution, a sign that the polling trend has legislative consequences.
Perhaps the most striking number in the survey: 37% of Republicans told pollsters the war was "not worth fighting." That is more than one in three members of the president's own party openly breaking with the administration's central foreign-policy commitment.
Among Democrats, 87% said the war was not worth it. Among independents, 68% said the same. Those figures are unsurprising. The Republican number is the one that matters politically, because it signals fracture where the White House needs unity.
The fracture extends beyond polls. The House recently passed a second Iran war powers resolution with Republican defections, and the Senate has seen its own bipartisan challenges to the administration's authority to continue the campaign.
The administration is not backing down. White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales told the Daily Caller News Foundation that the president's priority is security, not polling.
"What matters most to the American people is having a Commander in Chief who takes bold action to keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump is doing."
Wales went further, framing the conflict as a direct response to Iranian aggression.
"Americans are already safer for the United States' bold actions to deny the Iranian regime the ability to develop a nuclear weapon, and the President will not stand by as Iran kills our soldiers, fires at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and breaks the MOU [memorandum of understanding]."
The reference to a memorandum of understanding suggests the administration views Iran as having violated a prior diplomatic agreement, though Wales did not elaborate on the specific terms or timeline of that breach.
That framing, security over sentiment, is a defensible position. But it gets harder to sustain when your own party's approval is sliding and the casualty count is climbing.
The Pentagon's Defense Casualty Analysis System lists 18 American deaths connected to the Iran conflict. Four occurred after overseas operations began on July 7. The other 14 were lost during Operation Epic Fury.
ABC News reported that the Pentagon decreased the official death toll from Operation Epic Fury and moved four deaths into a new "Overseas Operation" category on its casualty tracker. The Daily Caller News Foundation asked the Pentagon to clarify the discrepancy. The Pentagon referred the outlet to the casualty database without further comment.
Reclassifying casualties between categories without a clear public explanation is the kind of bureaucratic maneuvering that erodes trust, especially during a conflict where public support is already fragile. Families who lost someone deserve a straight answer, not an accounting exercise.
Meanwhile, Sen. Bill Cassidy flipped his position on an Iran war powers vote shortly after losing his Louisiana primary, underscoring how the political ground is shifting beneath elected officials who initially backed the campaign.
Americans are feeling the conflict at the pump. The national average gasoline price stands at $4.10 per gallon, roughly a dollar higher than a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association. On February 26, two days before the war broke out, the average was $2.98.
That $1.12 jump in five months is not abstract. It hits working families, commuters, truckers, and small businesses on tight margins. And voters know it.
The AP-NORC poll found that 72% of Americans said it is "extremely or very important" to "prevent US oil and gas prices from rising." That is a supermajority cutting across party lines, and it puts the administration in a bind: the same military campaign the White House says is keeping Americans safe is also driving up the cost of getting to work.
Senate Democrats have tried to use that tension to force votes on war powers. They fell one vote short on a recent resolution, but the margin was razor-thin, and Republican defections keep growing.
The survey's timing adds an uncomfortable footnote. Pollsters finished collecting responses on July 27, the last night of the 13-night U.S. strike campaign. The next day, July 28, U.S. Central Command announced that fighting had resumed after attempted Iranian attacks.
So the numbers Americans see today, 64% calling the war not worth it, only 23% wanting to continue, were recorded during a relative lull. The resumption of hostilities may push those figures further in the same direction when the next round of polling arrives.
The administration's challenge is straightforward. President Trump has a legitimate national-security argument: preventing a nuclear-armed Iran is a goal most Americans share. But five months into the conflict, with 18 Americans dead, gas above four dollars, and support falling in every demographic group including his own base, the White House needs more than a statement about bold action. It needs results the public can see, and a timeline they can believe.
Wars do not stay popular on promises alone. They stay popular when the country believes the sacrifice is leading somewhere. Right now, the numbers say most Americans are not convinced.