Written by Ashton Snyder on
 July 6, 2024

Biden Campaign Faces Significant Threat Amid Declining Support

President Joe Biden's recent debate performance has led to a significant decline in his political support.

Polling data shows a sharp drop in Biden's favorability and vote share, especially in crucial battleground states, as The Blaze reports.

Published by Puck on Tuesday, a leaked memo from Open Labs, a Democratic research group, revealed the details. Open Labs has been conducting polls for various Democratic factions. The memo outlined how Biden's latest debate showing has hurt his political standing severely.

A poll conducted within 72 hours after the debate presented some alarming figures. Forty percent of Biden's 2020 voters suggested he should end his campaign. This represents a substantial increase from two months ago when only 25% held this view. Conversely, 45% believe Biden should continue, down from 62% during that same period.

A Growing Split Among Democrats

The memo also shed light on the widening divide within Democratic ranks about Biden's candidacy. Swing voters, crucial for any campaign, suggested by a two-to-one margin that Biden should step aside. Peter Hamby of Puck, who received the memo from an unnamed Democrat, emphasized the fallout.

One of the starkest revelations is the drop in Biden's vote share against former President Donald Trump. This decline, noted in the 72 hours following the debate, marks the most significant single-week decrease since late 2021. Currently, Biden's vote share is four percentage points lower than his winning margin in 2020.

Concerns about Biden's age continue to rise, feeding into this decline. Sixty-nine percent of voters expressed worries about the impact of Biden’s age on his ability to govern. This concern spans different voter groups, including 45% of Biden's 2020 voters and 68% of swing voters from both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Among Trump's 2020 voters, this figure climbs to 92%.

Trump Gains Ground in Key States

The memo further highlighted Trump's increasing competitiveness in states that were previously secure for the Democrats. Alarmingly, Biden's lead has eroded dramatically in several critical Electoral College battlegrounds.

Trump now leads Biden by more than 7% in Pennsylvania, a state that previously showed a narrower margin. New Hampshire sees Trump ahead by 2.8%, Wisconsin by 4.2%, and Michigan by 6.9%. Even more striking are the figures from Nevada and Arizona, with Trump leading by 8.8% and 9.7%, respectively. In traditionally competitive Georgia and North Carolina, Trump now holds leads of 10.1% and 10.6%.

The landscape has shifted so much that Trump has gained a half-point advantage in New Mexico and Virginia. Meanwhile, Biden's leads in Colorado and Maine have shrunk to around 2%.

Biden's Favorability Hits All-Time Low

The downward trend in Biden's favorability, which has been ongoing since the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, reached a new low of 27% last week. According to Open Labs, this is the lowest level since they began tracking these metrics in 2021.

In his coverage, Hamby stressed the broader implications. "Trump is now within striking distance in a variety of states that weren't considered campaign battlegrounds last week," he wrote, highlighting the urgent nature of the memo's warnings.

Speculation abounds regarding the purpose behind the leak. There are theories it might be an attempt to foster complacency among Republicans or to discourage Democratic voter turnout. Regardless, if Biden continues his campaign against this backdrop, he could face a significant electoral defeat.

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About Ashton Snyder


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