Democrats sit at 50 percent or better in Texas and Alaska Senate polls, giving the party a lift as it hunts four seats to seize the chamber next month.
A New York Times/Siena survey released Saturday showed Democratic candidates at or above the 50 percent line in two Republican-held Senate races that once looked far safer for the GOP.
In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico led Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola led Sen. Dan Sullivan 50 percent to 43 percent. With the Nov. 3 election just a month away, those numbers handed Democrats a measurable boost in the fight for Senate control.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber. The latest horse-race figures landed alongside other tight surveys in Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and North Carolina, and they arrived as party committees began shifting money to protect the majority.
The Texas result carried a six-point edge for Talarico and a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. A Marist College poll last week had also put Talarico ahead by six points. The NYT/Siena advantage was roughly double Talarico’s edge in the RealClearPolitics average.
The same survey put President Donald Trump’s Texas numbers at 40 percent approve and 57 percent disapprove. Days earlier, a recording surfaced of Paxton telling conservative donors and lobbyists that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the GOP midterm convention in Dallas last month, where Trump spoke.
"everybody’s numbers dropped"
Paxton’s remark, as characterized in the reporting, underscored how quickly the race had tightened. Paxton has previously warned that losing the Texas seat would put the Republican majority itself at risk.
Alaska’s seven-point Peltola lead over Sullivan added a second large-state problem for Republicans. Both Texas and Alaska rank among the country’s biggest states by land area, and both have long been treated as difficult terrain for Democrats in Senate contests.
Hours before Trump was set to visit Ohio to boost Sen. Jon Husted, a survey showed former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Husted 49 percent to 46 percent. Husted was appointed to the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.
In Iowa’s open seat, Rep. Ashley Hinson edged Democrat Josh Turek 48 percent to 47 percent. Trump carried Iowa with 56 percent of the vote in 2024, so a one-point race there marks a sharp drop from that baseline.
Kansas offered no relief. Sen. Roger Marshall stood tied 45-45 with Democrat Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in a century. On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, affiliated with Majority Leader John Thune, moved to pull $10 million out of the North Carolina race and redirect it to Kansas in a bid to protect the GOP majority.
That funding shift shows how seriously Republican strategists now treat a state that once looked locked down. Senate Republicans already face a long list of toss-up races, and every reallocated dollar reflects the same pressure.
In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper was leading Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman. The Senate Leadership Fund’s decision to pull $10 million from that contest landed the same week White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly was asked about Trump’s confidence in Whatley.
Kelly appeared on Fox News Live on Saturday and declined to handicap individual races while still backing the nominee.
"I can’t comment on specific races, but the president’s incredibly proud of Michael Whatley. Of Course Michael Whatley was a big partner."
Maine offered another 50-50 problem. Sen. Susan Collins faced Democrat Troy Jackson, and the latest CBS News poll showed them tied. Republicans are also trying to seize Democratic-held tossup seats in New Hampshire and Michigan.
In Michigan on Friday night, Republican candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers hammered Democrat Abdul El-Sayed as a "conman" and blasted his association with left-wing commentator Hasan Piker. That exchange underscored how personal and ideological the closing weeks have already become in the Midwest.
The arithmetic is simple and unforgiving. Republicans start at 53 seats. Democrats need four net pickups. Every race polling at or near 50 percent expands the map Democrats can contest and forces Republican committees to spend money they once hoped to save or deploy elsewhere.
Empty or weakened seats already complicate that math. An empty Senate seat has already cost Republicans leverage on the floor, and close November races would compound the same problem if the majority slips.
The Saturday polls did not invent the vulnerability. They measured it across Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, and Maine in a single news cycle. Trump’s planned Ohio visit, the Senate Leadership Fund’s Kansas redirect, and Paxton’s recorded admission about falling numbers all point to the same reality: the majority is in play, and the final month will decide whether Republicans hold it.
Floor fights still matter in the meantime. Senate Republicans recently stopped a Schumer bid on a high-profile Air Force One measure, proof the current majority can still deliver when it stays unified. Holding that majority past Nov. 3 is now the larger test.
Voters who want secure borders, working courts, and a Senate that checks the left’s agenda have one month to make that preference clear at the ballot box.