California Governor Gavin Newsom lost nearly 40 percent of his support among New Hampshire Democrats in just four months. A new Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll conducted March 16–18 shows Newsom at 15 percent in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary, down from 24 percent in the same poll last November.
Former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads the field at 29 percent. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surged to 10 percent, an 8-point jump since November. Former President Kamala Harris held steady at 6 percent, while Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro all clustered at 4 or 5 percent.
Nobody is running yet. But the direction of Newsom's numbers tells a story his talking points can't cover up.
Newsom has spent the better part of two years positioning himself as the Democratic Party's most aggressive foil to the Trump administration. He's filed lawsuits, held press conferences, and done the cable news circuit with the discipline of a man who already sees himself on a debate stage. When asked directly about a 2028 run, he offered the kind of answer that only someone thinking about running would give:
It's fate that will determine that. It's not me. It's the people who will determine that…Family first. Period. Full stop.
He then kept going, which is what candidates do.
And number two, you have to meet the moment. And that moment presents itself in the context of Trump and Trumpism and the world we're living in and all the just anxiety around what he's unleashed in terms of the unknown and chaos.
Translation: I'm running, but I want to pretend the universe is choosing me. According to Newsweek, this is a man who governs a state with a homeless crisis, an exodus of residents and businesses, and energy costs that punish working families, yet he frames himself as the answer to someone else's "chaos." New Hampshire Democrats, it appears, are starting to notice the gap between the brand and the product.
Buttigieg's 29 percent represents a marginal one-point gain from his November showing of 28 percent. He's not surging so much as holding ground while the field reshuffles beneath him. Earlier this month he posted on X with a message tailored for the moment:
Our economy is bleeding jobs. Prices are up, especially for gas. Yet the White House prioritizes tax cuts for billionaires, while launching a reckless new Middle East war. It doesn't have to stay this way—not if the American people make our voices heard.
The rhetoric is polished, as always. Buttigieg has mastered the art of sounding reasonable while saying nothing that costs him anything. But "tax cuts for billionaires" and "reckless war" is boilerplate progressivism dressed in a McKinsey presentation. Whether New Hampshire voters ultimately want a consultant or a crusader remains an open question.
Then there's Ocasio-Cortez. Her jump from 2 percent (implied by the 8-point rise) to 10 percent is the most dramatic movement in the field. The Democratic Party's progressive wing hasn't gone away. It's just been shopping. And if Newsom can't hold the center-left lane against Buttigieg while AOC consolidates the left, his path narrows considerably.
The remaining names on the Democratic side read like a list of governors and senators who would very much like you to know they exist:
This is a party that doesn't know what it wants to be. The progressive lane, the technocrat lane, the "I governed a state" lane, and the nostalgia lane are all open and all underpopulated. That's not a sign of abundance. It's a sign of drift.
The poll also tested Republican primary preferences, and the numbers there carry their own dynamics. Vice President JD Vance leads at 46 percent, down 10 points from 57 percent in November. Secretary of State Marco Rubio jumped 18 points to 27 percent. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley each sit at 5 percent.
Rubio's rise is the headline. His visibility in the Secretary of State role has clearly registered with Republican voters in a state that pays early attention to presidential politics. The 2028 Republican contest is years away, but these early numbers suggest the party's bench is deeper than critics want to admit.
The poll surveyed 1,491 registered New Hampshire voters online, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Results were weighted by age, gender, geography, education, and 2024 presidential vote, but notably not by party registration or party identification. It's one poll in one state. But New Hampshire isn't just any state. It's the first primary, and it has a long memory for candidates who campaign on biography rather than results.
Newsom's slide is significant not because 15 percent is catastrophic on its own, but because the trajectory is unmistakable. He entered this cycle as the most visible Democrat in America, the man who sued the federal government, who ran ads in red states, who practically dared the party to hand him the nomination. Four months later, he's hemorrhaging support to a former cabinet secretary who posts on social media and a congresswoman from the Bronx.
Newsom told Politico that the party must win back the House first:
If we don't win back the House of Representatives, we may not have a fair and free election in 2028.
That line does a lot of work. It reframes the 2026 midterms as an existential crisis rather than a standard election cycle. It positions Newsom as the man focused on the bigger picture, not his own ambition. And it conveniently gives him an excuse if his numbers keep falling: the moment simply hasn't arrived yet.
But moments don't wait for governors who can't explain why their own state is losing population. New Hampshire Democrats aren't rejecting Newsom because of fate. They're rejecting him because they've seen what he's selling, and they're browsing other options.
The 2028 race hasn't started. But in the Granite State, it's already sorting itself out.