Recent polling data from CNN highlights a potential challenge for Vice President Kamala Harris in her bid for the presidency, particularly among white male voters in key battleground states.
According to Fox News, CNN's political director David Chalian has identified this demographic gap as a "trouble sign" for the Harris campaign.
The poll in six crucial swing states shows Harris leading in Michigan and Wisconsin while former President Donald Trump holds an advantage in Arizona. The race remains extremely close in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with the candidates essentially tied in these key battlegrounds just over 60 days before the election.
One of the most notable trends is Harris' difficulty in securing support from White voters without college degrees, particularly in states like Georgia and Arizona. These voters, traditionally a base for Trump, are showing strong support for the former president, posing a significant challenge for Harris as she seeks to expand her appeal.
David Chalian, CNN’s political director, pointed out that this voter group remains a reliable constituency for Trump. "This is a trouble sign for Harris," Chalian said, referring to her struggle to gain traction with non-college-educated White men. Harris is also underperforming among White college-educated voters in Georgia, a state that has been closely contested in recent elections. This presents another layer of difficulty for the vice president as she seeks to build a broad coalition of support.
Despite her struggles with White male voters, Harris holds significant leads among female voters in several battleground states. The poll shows she leads by 17 percentage points among women in Wisconsin and by 16 points in Michigan. While her lead with female voters narrows in Arizona, it remains a crucial component of her strategy to win key states.
Harris also maintains overwhelming support from Black voters, especially in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. In Michigan, 86% of Black voters support Harris, while 11% favor Trump. Similar levels of support are seen in Georgia, where Harris commands 85% of the Black vote.
Chalian noted that Harris has room to grow her support among Black voters, particularly in Pennsylvania, where Joe Biden had 92% of the Black vote in 2020. Harris is currently at 84% in the state, leaving an opportunity to consolidate more of this key voting bloc.
With the election still over two months away, the race in key battleground states is tightening. CNN’s Kate Bolduan remarked that Harris has the edge in Michigan and Wisconsin, but in states like Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, the race is a virtual tie.
In Nevada, Trump holds an 18-point lead among male voters, while in Pennsylvania, his advantage with men is 15 points. Harris' ability to extend her lead with women and narrow Trump’s advantage with men will be crucial in determining the outcome of these states.
As Bolduan put it, the polling provides an "important gut check" for both campaigns. These states will play a decisive role in determining the next president, and neither side can afford to take them for granted.
The stakes for Harris in these battleground states are high. As she continues to trail with non-college-educated White men and faces challenges with White college-educated voters in places like Georgia, she must rely on strong support from women and Black voters to carry her through.
In contrast, Trump’s ability to solidify his support with men, particularly in states like Nevada and Pennsylvania, gives him a significant advantage. The gender gap will be a key factor in the race, as both candidates seek to expand their bases and make inroads with undecided voters. As the campaign progresses, Harris’ ability to close the gap with White voters and maintain her strong performance with Black and female voters will likely determine her success in the battlegrounds.
