As Election Day approaches, Michigan Democrats are increasingly worried about history repeating itself.
Michigan Democrats fear a repeat of Hillary Clinton's narrow 2016 loss, as polls indicate a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, as Fox News reports.
With polls showing Harris and Trump virtually tied in Michigan, concerns are mounting among Democrats who remember Clinton’s unexpected defeat in the state. In 2016, despite leading in many polls, Clinton lost Michigan to Trump -- the first Democratic candidate to do so since Michael Dukakis in 1988. For some, the anxiety is palpable, and the memory of that loss looms large.
Michigan Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond voiced his concerns, warning that Democrats should not take polling numbers for granted. “Smart Democrats have a healthy sense of paranoia,” Hemond told the Associated Press (AP). He added that if polling is as inaccurate as it was in 2016, Democrats could face a similar outcome. Polls have shown Harris leading by just one percentage point in Michigan, according to a New York Times and Siena College poll, which gives Harris 48% support and Trump 47%.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), currently running for Senate, expressed similar skepticism about the accuracy of polling data. “Anyone who’s from Michigan knows that, if you believe the polling, like, I got a bridge I’m going to sell you somewhere,” Slotkin remarked to the AP. Slotkin, who is closely watching Harris’s performance, believes the vice president is struggling in the state, admitting, "I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan."
The 2016 election still serves as a cautionary tale for many Democrats. Polls failed to capture Trump’s level of support in Michigan, leading to a shock loss for Clinton. This time, Michigan Democrats are determined to avoid underestimating Trump’s potential again.
Slotkin’s concerns over Harris’s standing in Michigan are based on internal Democratic polling, which she claims shows Harris “underwater.” Some Democrats, like Slotkin, see this as a rallying cry to boost fundraising and engagement before Election Day. The tight polling numbers have made it difficult for many Democrats to feel secure about their position in the state, especially with Trump making stops in previously overlooked areas.
Former Michigan Gov. John Engler, a Republican, noted that while Democrats have far more financial resources than Republicans in the state, the margin between Harris and Trump remains slim. Engler emphasized that Trump is focusing on places in Michigan that haven’t seen presidential visits before, a strategy that could make a difference in such a close race.
Democratic fundraiser Lori Goldman observed a significant drop in enthusiasm compared to the initial rush of donations when Harris first announced her candidacy. "What did we see? Money coming in like crazy. Everybody was excited. There was such a bump," Goldman said. "And now, you know, it’s neck and neck." For many in the party, the race feels more uncertain than ever.
Goldman’s remarks about the race being "neck and neck" echo the sentiments of many Michigan Democrats who are reliving the anxiety of 2016. She described the current mood among Democrats as “PTSD,” a reflection of the psychological toll that the memory of Clinton’s loss still exerts on the party.
Democratic strategist Patrick Schuh believes that the Harris campaign needs to focus on ensuring that voters understand her positions more clearly. Schuh reported that many voters want to hear more about Harris’s stance on key issues, which could make a difference in such a closely contested race. “What Harris stands for as a candidate” needs to be emphasized, Schuh said, especially as the election draws closer.
The lessons from 2016 have not been forgotten by Michigan Democrats, who are now urging their base to remain vigilant. While they have more financial backing than their Republican counterparts, their nervousness about the state’s unpredictability has not subsided.
As the 2024 election nears, Democrats in Michigan are haunted by the fear of history repeating itself. The race between Harris and Trump is tight, with polls showing only a narrow difference in support. While Democrats enjoy a significant financial advantage, concerns remain about whether polling errors could once again lead to an unexpected result.
