A surprising change in Minnesota's electoral status has caught the attention of political analysts and campaign strategists alike.
Newsweek reported that Real Clear Polling, a prominent polling aggregator, has reclassified Minnesota from leaning towards Vice President Kamala Harris to a toss-up state in its Electoral College map forecast.
The move places Minnesota's 10 Electoral College votes in play, potentially providing former President Donald Trump with an additional path to victory. This development is particularly noteworthy given that Minnesota has consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the last 12 elections.
Real Clear Polling's updated forecast now gives Trump a slight edge in the Electoral College count, with 219 votes compared to Harris's 215.
The reclassification of Minnesota leaves 104 Electoral College votes up for grabs, including those from seven key battleground states and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
This change marks a significant shift from the previous forecast on July 27, which had categorized Minnesota as leaning toward Harris. The last time Real Clear Polling considered Minnesota a toss-up state was in March, prior to President Joe Biden's decision to end his reelection campaign.
It's important to note that other forecasters and recent polls still favor Harris in Minnesota. A Minnesota Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll conducted from September 16 to 18 showed Harris leading by 5 percentage points, with a margin of error of 3.5 points.
The reclassification of Minnesota could prompt both campaigns to reassess their strategies in the state. Harris's campaign may need to allocate more resources to secure what was previously considered a relatively safe state, while Trump's team might see an opportunity to make inroads in a traditionally Democratic stronghold.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, has suggested that undecided voters could play a crucial role in the state's outcome. He stated:
It's quite possible—in Minnesota and elsewhere—that two-thirds of the 5 percent to 10 percent undecided will break in favor of Trump and tilt the race.
This perspective underscores the potential volatility of the race in Minnesota and the importance of capturing undecided voters in the final stretch of the campaign.
Minnesota's electoral history adds an intriguing backdrop to this development. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden secured a victory in Minnesota with a 7-point margin over Trump. However, the 2016 election saw a much closer race, with Hillary Clinton winning the state by only 1.5 points.
Despite the shift in Real Clear Polling's forecast, other predictive models maintain a more favorable outlook for Harris in Minnesota. The Cook Political Report still lists Minnesota as "likely" Democratic, while Race to the White House forecasters give Harris a nearly 96 percent chance of winning the state.
The reclassification of Minnesota as a toss-up state by Real Clear Polling has introduced a new element of uncertainty into the 2024 presidential race. This change puts Trump slightly ahead in the Electoral College projection, with 219 votes to Harris's 215. While other polls and forecasts still favor Harris in Minnesota, the shift highlights the potential for a competitive race in a state that has consistently voted Democratic in recent presidential elections.
