Could New York City be on the brink of an unprecedented exodus? A chilling new poll suggests that the Big Apple might lose nearly a million residents if democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani secures the mayor’s office.
The survey, conducted by JL Partners for the Daily Mail, reveals that 9 percent of New Yorkers, roughly 765,000 people, would definitely leave under a Mamdani administration. Another 25 percent, or over 2 million, are seriously weighing their options.
This potential departure, equivalent to the entire population of a city like Seattle, would mark one of the largest mass migrations in American history. The economic fallout could be catastrophic, sending ripples far beyond the five boroughs.
Among the most alarming findings is that 7 percent of those earning over $250,000 would pack their bags if Mamdani takes City Hall. With the top 1 percent footing nearly half of the city’s income tax bill, their exit would gut municipal finances.
Mamdani’s ambitious plans, including fare-free buses and rent freezes, rely on hefty tax hikes, such as a 2 percent increase for millionaires and a corporate rate jump to 11.5 percent. Losing these high earners would leave a gaping hole in the budget, rendering his policies unsustainable.
Real estate markets are already feeling the heat, with wealthy residents selling properties and buyers pulling out of multi-million-dollar deals. New York realtor Jay Batra noted, “They don’t want to hear about Mamdani and the rent freeze he is proposing,” signaling a preemptive retreat by the city’s elite.
The poll captures a stark divide in how New Yorkers view a potential Mamdani era. Those opposing him describe the city’s future in grim terms like “disaster” and “chaos,” while his supporters see hope in words like “affordable” and “improved.”
Pollster James Johnson of JL Partners summed up the fear: “The prospect of Mamdani is so scary to some that they are considering throwing in the Big Apple for new digs.” Such visceral reactions, especially from older residents and Staten Islanders, hint at a deep unease with his progressive agenda.
Staten Island stands out as a hotspot of discontent, with 21 percent of residents ready to leave and 54 percent mulling it over. Across demographics, white and Asian New Yorkers, along with men aged 50 to 64, show the strongest inclination to flee.
Businesses, too, are sounding the alarm, with many eyeing low-tax havens like Florida and the Carolinas. Scott Singer, Republican mayor of Boca Raton, Florida, told the Daily Mail, “I’ve been working with business leaders who are already trying to anticipate this move by planning for an exodus to Boca Raton.”
Singer’s pitch of a “low tax, safe, vibrant business ecosystem” is a direct jab at Mamdani’s proposed tax increases and the anticipated rise in crime. He warns that New York risks repeating the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, a period of violence and economic decay that many fear could return.
Critics argue that Mamdani’s policies mirror failed experiments in places like California, where high taxes have driven firms to states like Texas. If companies follow suit, New York’s commercial vitality, painstakingly rebuilt over decades, could crumble overnight.
The numbers paint a dire picture for public safety and stability under Mamdani, with 47 percent of polled New Yorkers expecting crime to worsen and 45 percent foreseeing a rise in antisemitic views. Only housing affordability offers a sliver of optimism, with 39 percent believing it might improve.
Even among Democrats, skepticism runs high, as a third predict spikes in crime and antisemitism if Mamdani wins. This fracture within his own party’s base suggests that his radical proposals, while appealing to some, risk alienating a broad swath of the city.
New York stands at a pivotal moment, with Mamdani leading at 45 percent among decided voters against Andrew Cuomo’s 31 percent and Curtis Sliwa’s 22 percent. Whether this poll’s predicted exodus becomes reality or remains a warning shot, the stakes for the city’s future couldn’t be higher.