Republicans are increasingly optimistic about flipping Virginia in the upcoming November election.
Recent polls indicate a close race between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden 9in the Commonwealth, creating a competitive atmosphere in a historically Democratic-leaning state, as The Hill reports.
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are polling within a few points of each other in Virginia, a state that has leaned Democratic for decades. The shift in polling suggests a potentially significant change in the electoral landscape, one that Republicans are eager to capitalize on.
According to recent surveys, Trump and Biden are polling within 2 to 5 points in Virginia. An Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Trump leading Biden 45% to 43%, within the margin of error. Conversely, a Florida Atlantic University survey places Biden ahead at 47% to 42%. These mixed results underscore the state's competitive nature.
Virginia has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004. In 2020, Biden won the state by 10 points, following Hillary Clinton's more than 5-point victory in 2016. The trend seemed consistent with former President Barack Obama winning by nearly four points in 2012 and more than 6 points in 2008.
Yet, polling data shows fluctuating support for both candidates. A Virginia Commonwealth University poll found Trump leading Biden by three points, while a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden leading by the same margin. The close margins reveal Virginia as a battleground with potential volatility.
Zack Roday, a Republican strategist, described Virginia as "a toss-up," noting Biden’s current struggles. He suggests Trump has not yet reached his peak support, implying more room for growth among Republican voters in the state. Another Republican strategist, Jared Leopold, expressed skepticism about long-term victories based on current measures. He criticized the Republican campaign’s lack of field offices, comparing it to a football team failing to place all players on the field.
Historically, Virginia Democrats have seen considerable success in recent years, particularly in the 2022 midterms, where they managed to retake the General Assembly. Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine currently leads his GOP challenger Hung Cao by 10 points according to an Emerson College/The Hill survey.
Trump's path to victory involves maximizing turnout in rural areas and improving Republican performance in suburban regions, particularly Northern Virginia. Recent endorsements, like Nikki Haley’s at the Republican National Convention, aim to solidify Trump's support base, despite their past conflicts.
In a bid to draw more support, Trump recently held a post-debate rally in Hampton Roads, a critical swing area. Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been advocating for Trump to campaign extensively across the state, mirroring his own successful gubernatorial campaign strategy.
Justin Discigil, a representative from Youngkin’s camp, noted the governor’s win involved campaigning in every community with messages of common sense and conservative principles. This inclusive approach is being recommended to Trump as a blueprint for his efforts in Virginia.
Virginia Delegate Don Scott, however, remains confident that Democrats will outmaneuver Republicans. He emphasized the strength of the Democratic infrastructure built by the Biden campaign and derided the Republican efforts as insufficient. Scott expressed positive sentiments about Republicans focusing their resources in Virginia, hoping it would detract from efforts in other crucial battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. He believes that prolonged Republican focus on Virginia will ultimately be fruitless.
Reflecting on national implications, Zack Roday suggested Virginia’s volatility is a precursor to broader trends. He implied that success in Virginia could foretell Republican victories in other Rust Belt battlegrounds. As the campaigns heat up, all eyes will be on Virginia as it potentially redefines its affiliation in the 2024 elections.
