A self-described socialist running on less than $207,000 has slashed a 50-point deficit against the Democratic establishment's handpicked Senate candidate in New Hampshire, and the primary is two weeks away.
Karishma Manzur, a scientist and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, now trails four-term Rep. Chris Pappas by just 13 points in the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary, according to a University of New Hampshire poll. Pappas holds 47 percent to Manzur's 34 percent in a race that, until recently, the party's leadership treated as settled. The primary is set for September 8.
Pappas had locked up major endorsements, cleared the field of serious challengers, and raised nearly $13.4 million through the end of June. Manzur raised less than $207,000 over the same period. His campaign declined to comment on the tightening numbers.
The seat belongs to retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, and Democrats consider it a must-win if they hope to flip a Senate chamber Republicans control 53-47. Nonpartisan forecasters give Democrats a slight edge in the general election, but that math assumes Pappas, not a DSA-aligned activist, is the nominee.
The University of New Hampshire Survey Center attributed Manzur's gains to "strong support from socialist and younger voters." Her campaign framed the momentum differently. A statement from the Manzur campaign called the surge a reflection of "growing grassroots support across New Hampshire for her message of honesty, peace, democracy, and prosperity for all people, and her call to end war profiteering."
In a social media video, Manzur said she is running a "true grassroots campaign" that has done no ads or mailers "because we can't afford it." Her platform centers on economic inequality, universal healthcare, and ending what she calls a "genocide" in Gaza, a characterization she has directed at both Pappas and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. That framing is Manzur's own; it does not reflect any verified legal determination.
The pattern should look familiar to anyone watching Democratic primaries this cycle. Last week in Florida, socialist state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman by 12 points in a Senate primary, despite being outraised 16 to 1. Vindman, a former Trump administration whistleblower whom the national party had rallied behind, lost to a candidate who joined the Democratic Socialists and then denied being one on national television.
The Washington Examiner reported that Michigan's Abdul el Sayed and Maine's Troy Jackson are additional examples of socialist-backed candidates who rode insurgent progressive enthusiasm to Democratic nominations in recent cycles.
One unnamed national Republican operative offered a blunt assessment of what the trend means for Democrats heading into the midterms:
"I think Michigan and Maine have been lessons for establishment Democrats that their party has a brand problem, not just with independent unaffiliated voters and conservative-leaning voters, but within their own ranks. I think Democratic voters clearly are showing a frustration with the status quo, and no one defines status quo more than Chris Pappas."
That frustration creates a problem that goes well beyond New Hampshire. Democratic veterans have warned that a socialist surge across multiple primaries could hand Republicans the midterms by nominating candidates too far left for general-election voters in swing states.
National Republicans have already spent months running general-election-style ads against Pappas, treating him as the presumptive nominee. If Manzur pulls the upset, the GOP would face a very different opponent, one who could energize the progressive base but who carries the DSA label into a state where independents decide elections.
The general-election landscape is already tight. The same University of New Hampshire poll showed GOP front-runner John E. Sununu, who served as a senator from 2003 to 2009 and carries a Trump endorsement, leading Pappas 45 percent to 43 percent. Sununu faces former Trump ambassador and former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown in the Republican primary.
Manzur's membership in the Democratic Socialists of America comes with baggage she has tried to set down in public. The DSA platform includes a call to abolish the U.S. Senate, the very body she is running to join. In a C-SPAN interview, Manzur attempted to put space between herself and that position:
"I cannot answer for other people. Why should I respond to somebody who happens to be a member of the DSA? I'm a member of the Democratic Party. I don't have to be burdened with answering or excusing questions asked by other people in the Democratic Party. Similarly, there's a huge disparity between myself and maybe members of the DSA."
The dodge is revealing. Manzur is a member of the DSA. She is also, by her own description, a member of the Democratic Party. When pressed on the contradiction between belonging to an organization that wants to abolish the Senate and running for a Senate seat, she chose to treat her DSA membership as incidental, something that belongs to "other people." Whether New Hampshire primary voters accept that framing in the final two weeks will determine the trajectory of one of the most consequential Senate races in the country.
The broader Democratic leadership crisis extends well beyond one primary. Sen. Elissa Slotkin recently called on Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to step aside for new leadership, a sign that the establishment's grip is loosening from multiple directions at once.
And the party's candidate-vetting problems are not limited to ideology. In Maine, Democrats fled their own Senate candidate after a rape allegation upended the race, raising fresh questions about how well the national party knows the people it backs.
On paper, Pappas should win this race comfortably. He outspent Manzur by a ratio of roughly 65 to 1 through June. He holds every major endorsement the party can offer. He cleared the primary field months ago, or thought he did.
But the Florida result showed that money and endorsements do not inoculate establishment Democrats against a grassroots challenger who taps into genuine voter anger. Vindman outspent Nixon by 16 to 1 and still lost by double digits. Pappas's $13.4 million war chest may matter less than the energy gap between a four-term congressman running on incumbency and a first-time candidate running on grievance.
Manzur herself framed the stakes in economic terms. "I am fighting to deliver livable wages, affordable housing, and Medicare for All," she said. Those are standard progressive talking points, but in a primary electorate increasingly drawn to candidates who reject the party's center, standard progressive talking points are proving more potent than $13 million in establishment fundraising.
If Pappas survives the primary, he walks into a general election already trailing Sununu. If he loses, Democrats face the prospect of defending a critical Senate seat with a DSA member whose own organization wants to abolish the chamber she would serve in.
Either way, the Democratic Party's problem is the same one it keeps refusing to solve: its base is moving left faster than its leaders, and no amount of money has slowed the drift. Voters who feel ignored by the establishment will find someone who listens, even if that someone belongs to an organization that wants to tear the whole thing down.