Republican Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales is hemorrhaging support ahead of the March 3 primary election, with a new poll showing him trailing Second Amendment activist and YouTube personality Brandon Herrera by a staggering 24 points among likely Republican primary voters.
The poll, conducted Feb. 18-20 by Pi Polling and exclusively obtained by the Daily Caller, surveyed 543 likely Republican primary voters. Gonzales sits at just 21% to Herrera's 45%. That's a complete reversal from a Pi Polling survey conducted in December, when Gonzales held a 40% to 33% lead.
The collapse tracks directly to allegations that Gonzales carried on an affair with a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, who set herself on fire outside her Uvalde, Texas, home in September 2025.
The poll's internals are devastating for Gonzales:
For a sitting congressman who entered this race receiving the endorsement of President Donald Trump, those are not numbers that suggest a path to survival. They suggest a candidacy in free fall.
Text messages from Santos-Aviles were obtained by the San Antonio Express-News, and Santos-Aviles reportedly confirmed the affair months before her death. Bobby Barrera, an attorney representing Adrian Aviles, Regina's widower, told The Daily Caller that the relationship was widely known within Gonzales's operation.
"It's common knowledge. The staff was clearly aware this event was occurring."
A former staffer for Gonzales, speaking to the Daily Caller, corroborated that account, saying the rumored affair became "common knowledge" during the 2024 election. Sources in Texas familiar with the situation described at least two encounters at a rental cabin, and said Santos-Aviles had been sent to work on two Democratic campaigns in the Los Angeles area.
Herrera posted on X Sunday afternoon, days after the Daily Caller's Wednesday report, and did not mince words.
"I have now seen some of the text messages between Tony Gonzales and his late aide, Regina Santos-Aviles. It is now clear to me Tony Gonzales is a sexual predator, who abused his position of power and wrecked a family. I also now know this is not the only case. He must resign."
Gonzales responded on X at 3:46 a.m. Sunday morning, calling the allegations "coordinated political attacks."
"During my six years in Congress not a single formal complaint has been levied against my office. Now days away from an election, coordinated political attacks reign in. IT WONT WORK. Half way through early voting and the intensity resides w/ TG voters. I'd rather be us than them."
The "no formal complaint" defense is a familiar one in Washington. It is technically a statement about process, not about conduct. Plenty of behavior never generates a formal complaint. That doesn't mean it didn't happen. It means nobody filed paperwork.
And posting defiant all-caps messages before 4 a.m. is not exactly the posture of a campaign that believes the fundamentals are sound.
Republican primary voters have shown repeatedly that they have no patience for incumbents who coast on title alone. The conservative grassroots expect their representatives to be accountable, not just electable. When a congressman's personal conduct becomes the central story of a race, voters are not wrong to ask whether that congressman can still effectively represent them.
Gonzales's district deserves a representative whose name is in the news for fighting on behalf of constituents, not for allegations involving a former aide who died in horrific circumstances. Whatever the full truth turns out to be, the political reality is already settled: 54% unfavorable among your own party's primary electorate is not a scandal you message your way out of.
A woman is dead. A family is shattered. And a congressman is posting at 3:46 in the morning about how he'd "rather be us than them."
The voters, it appears, have already decided which side of that line they're on.