Vice President JD Vance is weighing whether to abandon a 2028 presidential bid after the resignation of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stripped him of his closest remaining ally inside the Trump administration, the Daily Mail reported, citing multiple White House insiders who described the vice president as increasingly sidelined.
Gabbard submitted her resignation letter on Friday, citing her husband's diagnosis with a rare form of cancer. Vance called her a "great asset to the administration" and expressed sorrow over the departure of his "dear friend." But the personal loss doubles as a political one. With Gabbard gone and former administration official Joe Kent already out the door since March, the vice president's internal coalition has effectively dissolved.
The question now is whether Vance, at 41, has a future as the standard-bearer for the populist wing of the Republican Party, or whether the window is already closing.
White House insiders offered a blunt assessment of Vance's standing. One source close to the president told the Daily Mail that "Vance is a non-event in the West Wing." Another said Secretary of State Marco Rubio has eclipsed the vice president on the issues that matter most to Trump.
"Rubio has more mojo than Vance. The President listens to him. Vance is out of step and has been for a long time."
The friction traces back to February, when Trump authorized military strikes on Iran. Vance privately urged a limited, punitive strike rather than a full-scale operation. Trump later acknowledged the gap publicly, conceding that his vice president was "maybe less enthusiastic" at the start of the conflict and "philosophically a little bit different" on the decision to strike. The New York Times previously reported on Vance's behind-the-scenes push for restraint.
That restraint put Vance on the wrong side of a president who has embraced a wartime posture. As we previously reported on Vance losing ground to Rubio on Iran policy, the dynamic has only sharpened in recent months.
One insider captured the contrast in vivid terms:
"The President has made it very clear in recent months that he doesn't abide by this strong, silent Gary Cooper style approach to foreign policy. He's loud, he's active. These guys prefer to speak softly and carry a big stick, but Trump speaks loudly and carries a massive cannon."
Rubio, by contrast, is reportedly helping plan an invasion of Cuba and has seen his stock inside the West Wing reach what sources described as an all-time high. The secretary of state's ascent has come at a direct cost to Vance's influence.
Gabbard's resignation, while framed around her husband's health, removed the last senior official widely seen as a brake on the administration's more hawkish instincts. One insider pushed back on the idea that Gabbard was a dissenter, telling the Daily Mail: "I don't think she was as opposed as a lot of people think she was. She recognized that her job was to serve the President."
Still, her departure follows Kent's March resignation, which came as an explicit protest over the Iran war. Kent submitted his resignation to Vance alongside Gabbard and reportedly disregarded Vance's advice not to disparage the president on his way out. Kent went further, accusing Israel of misleading the president into the Iran conflict.
The back-to-back losses have left Vance without a reliable internal network. As our earlier coverage detailed, Gabbard's exit reshuffled the inner circle in ways that left the vice president exposed.
Vance himself dismissed the reporting in a statement, calling it "just a flimsy compilation of completely illegitimate sources who have no idea what they're talking about." That denial, however, does not address the underlying policy disagreements that multiple insiders described independently.
Allies close to Vance are framing the 2028 question in stark terms. One source described the political reality this way:
"Anyone who wants to be a viable nominee for president has a very small window. And if you don't go when that window is open, most likely it never opens up again."
At 41, Vance would be young enough to wait for 2032 or even 2036. But sources close to him acknowledged the difficulty. Staying relevant for a decade out of office would be "extremely hard when you're out of the limelight," one said. Another put it more plainly: "Age-wise he'd be young enough. But momentum-wise, there'd be a shinier penny on the street."
History backs up the skepticism. Only three presidents in the last half-century lost re-election bids, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Donald Trump. The odds of mounting a comeback after years away from power are long. Trump himself is the exception that proves how rare the feat is.
Meanwhile, Trump advisers have reportedly begun building the case for Rubio as the 2028 Republican nominee, a development that further narrows Vance's lane.
What makes Vance's position so precarious is not that he broke with Trump publicly, he didn't. He urged a different approach privately and lost the argument. In most administrations, that kind of internal dissent would be unremarkable. But in a White House that prizes loyalty and energy, being "less enthusiastic" carries a price.
Vance's instinct on Iran, favoring a limited strike over a broader campaign, reflected the very populist, restraint-first foreign policy that helped define his political brand. It was the position many grassroots conservatives expected him to hold. The problem is that Trump moved in a different direction, and the insiders who matter most followed the president.
Rubio's rise is the mirror image. The secretary of state aligned himself with Trump's more aggressive posture, and it paid off. Whether it continues to pay off, particularly if a Cuba operation proves unpopular or overextended, remains an open question. But for now, Rubio holds the leverage that Vance has lost.
The broader reshuffling inside the administration has coincided with a turbulent stretch at the White House. Recent internal shifts and external pressures have only accelerated the sorting of winners and losers within Trump's orbit.
Vance has not made a public decision on 2028. His denial of the Daily Mail report suggests he is not ready to concede the narrative. But the facts beneath the denial are harder to wave away: his closest allies have resigned, the president's foreign policy has moved past him, and the insiders who shape West Wing perception describe him as irrelevant to the daily business of governing.
None of this means Vance is finished. He remains vice president. He is 41 years old. He has a national profile and a populist message that still resonates with a large share of the Republican base. But the gap between holding the title and holding the influence has rarely been wider for a sitting vice president in the modern era.
Iran negotiations, where Vance has reportedly struggled to gain traction, could still offer a path back to relevance if he delivers results. Cuba could become a liability for Rubio if the operation stalls or draws public backlash. Politics is long, and the 2028 primary is years away.
But windows don't stay open because you deserve them. They stay open because you hold power, and right now, the vice president's grip is slipping.