A renowned pollster's unexpected departure from election polling follows a controversial forecast that stirred significant media attention.
According to Fox News, J. Ann Selzer, a veteran pollster, announced her transition away from election polling after her final poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading President-elect Donald Trump in Iowa, a prediction that proved significantly inaccurate.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, published on November 2, projected Harris leading Trump by 47% to 44%, representing a dramatic 7-point shift from September's polling data. This forecast stood in stark contrast to Trump's historical performance in Iowa, where he had previously secured victories with substantial margins in both 2016 and 2020.
The poll's unexpected findings generated widespread attention across major media networks, with prominent outlets and personalities eagerly discussing its implications. News channels, including MSNBC, CNN, and ABC's "The View," extensively covered the surprising forecast, interpreting it as a potential indicator of shifting political dynamics in Midwestern states.
MSNBC host Rachel Maddow shared her thoughts on the poll's significance. Selzer explained her position in a Des Moines Register op-ed, addressing the controversy surrounding her final poll.
As stated by Selzer:
Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I'm humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.
Trump's connection to Iowa has been consistently strong throughout recent presidential elections. In 2016, he defeated Hillary Clinton by 9.4 percentage points, followed by an 8.2-point victory over Joe Biden in 2020. These previous results made the poll's projection particularly noteworthy.
The 2024 election results revealed an even more decisive victory for Trump in Iowa, with a margin exceeding 14 percentage points over Harris. This outcome stood in sharp contrast to Selzer's poll predictions, leading to significant criticism and questioning of the polling methodology.
Selzer addressed the possibility that her poll might have inadvertently influenced voter behavior. She suggested that the surprising results could have motivated Republican voters who might have otherwise assumed an easy victory, potentially contributing to the increased turnout for Trump.
Selzer's announcement marked the conclusion of a distinguished career in election polling that spanned three decades. Her work included collaborations with numerous prestigious organizations, including the Des Moines Register, Detroit Free Press, Indianapolis Star, and Bloomberg News.
In her farewell op-ed published on November 17, Selzer revealed that she had informed the Register over a year ago about her intention not to renew her contract following the 2024 election. She expressed pride in her extensive body of work while acknowledging the ironic timing of her departure following a controversial poll.
The veteran pollster also addressed accusations about data manipulation, maintaining her professional integrity despite the backlash. She thanked her support system for standing by her during this challenging period.
J. Ann Selzer's departure from election polling came in the wake of her final poll that predicted Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in Iowa by three points. The subsequent election results showed Trump winning the state by a substantial 14-point margin, leading to significant criticism of her methodology and accuracy. While her final poll proved controversial, Selzer maintained her professional integrity and emphasized the inherent challenges in polling science. She acknowledged the humbling nature of unexpected results while defending her methodology and experience in the field.
