A new CBS News poll finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico locked in a virtual dead heat for Texas Senate, with turnout now the whole ballgame.
The CBS News/YouGov survey of registered Texas voters puts the U.S. Senate race essentially tied heading into the closing stretch. The same snapshot gives Gov. Greg Abbott an edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the governor’s race.
Interviewers spoke with 1,492 registered voters between October 8 and 16, 2026. Results were weighted to Census benchmarks on gender, age, race, and education, plus the 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±3.4 points among registered voters and ±3.5 points among likely voters.
Texas still leans Republican. Fewer voters call themselves liberal. Yet cost-of-living pain, character judgments, and uneven enthusiasm have turned a seat Republicans expect to hold into a genuine fight. That matches other signs of a tightening national Senate map where every competitive state now matters.
Cost of living ranks as the top issue for Texas voters in the poll. Most say higher prices have hit them hard. Among those voters, Talarico holds a sizable lead over Paxton.
Younger voters break for the Democrat in large numbers. Latino voters, who swung toward President Trump in 2024, mostly back Talarico in this survey. Latinos are also more likely than voters overall to call higher prices a hardship.
Most Latino voters say Paxton lacks the personal character to serve as senator. Talarico also peels off 5% of self-identified Republicans and draws 9% of people who say they never vote for Democrats, but will this time.
Those crossovers keep the race inside the margin. They do not erase the state’s underlying partisan tilt, or the way ideology still sorts the electorate.
Almost half of voters describe Talarico as “very liberal.” When they do, they vote for Paxton. That brand tax limits how far economic discontent can carry a Democrat in Texas.
Paxton’s base is clearer. Much of his Republican support is framed as backing for the GOP nominee, opposition to Talarico, or support for President Trump. The Trump administration’s deportation program also draws more support in Texas than it did in the most recent CBS News national poll, an advantage that travels with Paxton in a border state.
Campaign intensity has already produced sharp personal lines, including a Hall of Famer’s endorsement of Paxton that centered on trust. The poll’s character and ideology splits show why those arguments stick.
CBS frames the contest as one that turns on who shows up. More Democrats say they will definitely vote, which helps Talarico close the structural gap. Republicans still hold the registration and self-ID edge statewide. If conservative turnout softens while price-stressed and younger voters surge, the Democrat’s path widens. If the GOP base turns out and “very liberal” branding hardens, Paxton’s floor holds.
Paxton has already cast the race in national terms, warning that a Texas loss could cost Republicans the chamber. That is the sober math of a map with few true toss-ups: one deep-red state slipping into pure turnout warfare raises the price of every missed voter.
Democratic unity is not automatic either. Public friction inside the party, including cases where prominent Texas Democrats have declined to rally behind the nominee, has already exposed rifts around Talarico’s bid. Enthusiasm gaps cut both ways when the horse race is this tight.
On the governor’s side, Abbott’s edge over Hinojosa is clearer than the Senate deadlock, even if the poll stops short of publishing a full margin. Seven percent of Talarico’s Senate voters still back Abbott for governor, a split ticket signal that some Democrats or Democrat-leaning crossovers separate the two races.
That pattern fits a state where institutional Republican strength remains real even when pocketbook anger boosts a Democratic Senate hopeful. Talarico has tried to widen his lane with ads that hit both Biden-era border policy and Paxton on local economic fights such as data centers, a mix meant to blunt ideology attacks while staying on prices. The poll says prices are working for him. The “very liberal” label is working against him.
"This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,492 registered voters in Texas interviewed between October 8-16, 2026. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race and education based on U.S. Census data, as well as to 2024 presidential vote. The margin of error is ± 3.4 points for the sample of registered voters, and ± 3.5 points for likely voters."
Exact head-to-head percentages were not published in the report’s top-line description, only that the Senate race is essentially tied and that Abbott holds an edge. Crosstabs on the size of Talarico’s lead among price-stressed voters, the precise youth and Latino shares, and the Texas-versus-national deportation gap were likewise described in directional terms rather than full figures.
What the numbers do establish is simple. Texas is not behaving like a locked-down Republican formality in the Senate race. Economic frustration has handed Democrats a live path. Ideology and Trump-aligned priorities still give Republicans a durable floor. The rest is organization, messaging discipline, and who actually votes.
In a state this big, a toss-up is not a vibe. It is a warning that base assumptions are not a turnout plan, and that price pain plus soft enthusiasm can put even a red-state Senate seat on the table.